Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Current price
86.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 86.5%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The definition of a broken ceasefire is strictly technical and excludes many significant forms of military conflict. Actions such as ground incursions, rocket artillery, naval gunfire, cyber operations, and strikes that are intercepted before impact (even if falling debris causes ground damage) do not qualify to resolve the market to No. Distinguishing direct impacts from intercepted wreckage during intense strikes often relies on contested wartime reporting. Because the rules do not use a single binding data source, the outcome is determined by assessing the totality and consensus of news reporting and government statements. In the event of conflicting claims, resolution is delayed by up to three days before an assessment is made.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds through October 31 at 11:59 PM IRST. Resolution uniquely defines a broken ceasefire strictly by direct terrestrial impacts from specific air or missile strikes, explicitly excluding intercepted munitions, debris, artillery, cyber operations, and ground actions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through October 31 at 11:59 PM IRST. The market resolves to No if either Israel or Iran executes a qualifying military action that directly impacts the terrestrial territory or internal waters of the other country before the deadline. Qualifying actions are limited to air strikes and surface-to-surface missile or one-way attack drone strikes. Intercepted munitions, falling debris, maritime impacts, airspace incursions, artillery, ground incursions, small-arms fire, and cyber operations do not qualify. Resolution is determined by official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Key dates
- End of ceasefire evaluation period: October 31 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST)
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran, and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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