Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
Current price
32.05¢
+9.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32.05%
$880.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows straightforward sports championship mechanics, relying directly on official information from Major League Baseball to identify the 2026 World Series winner. The rules clearly state that the market can resolve to No early if the team is officially eliminated from contention during the season or postseason. If the season is canceled, suspended past December 31, 2026, or concludes without a declared winner, the market resolves to Other. Because the outcome hinges on an unambiguous official sporting title, there is little ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Tampa Bay Rays will win the 2026 Major League Baseball World Series.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 MLB World Series. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for the Rays to win the 2026 World Series under MLB rules, such as through elimination from playoff contention. The market resolves to Other if the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed past December 31, 2026 ET, or if no winner is declared by that date. Resolution is determined by official information from MLB, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary option.
Key dates
- Season conclusion deadline: — Deadline for a winner to be declared before the market resolves to Other
Resolution source
MLB official information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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