Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?
Current price
25¢
−3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25%
$18.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winner of Colorado's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterms determines the outcome, including explicit fallback logic for unaffiliated or independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official government data from the Federal Election Commission acting as the final tiebreaker if ambiguity arises. The criteria and timing are standard for congressional election markets with minimal surprise potential.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Colorado's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CO-04 House seat in the 2026 midterms is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback for ambiguous results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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