Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$2.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market sets out clear and mechanical resolution criteria based on official ballot list performance in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. It defines explicit, multi-tiered tie-breaking rules (seats won, then valid votes, then alphabetical order) and specifies that seats are attributed solely to the registered electoral list rather than post-election coalitions. Resolution defaults to consensus reporting with a named official authority, the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia, serving as the definitive backstop in ambiguous cases. A specific timeout clause resolves the market to 'Other' if official results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list 'Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)' will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. Resolution relies strictly on ballot list names rather than post-election parliamentary organizing, with tiebreakers based on total votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the named electoral list finishes in the top position by winning the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly. If lists tie on seats, the tie is broken first by total valid votes received and then by alphabetical order of the list names. Resolution depends solely on the list as named on official proclamations, regardless of constituent parties or post-election assembly organization. The market resolves to No if another list finishes first. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary elections.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia deciding in cases of ambiguity.
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