Israeli Legislative Election Winner
6 live outcomes · highest priced: Yashar at 68% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 28, 2026 · $1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which political party or coalition will win the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple candidate parties, with each market tracking whether a specific party or coalition wins the most Knesset seats. Because resolution rules specify tiebreakers (most valid votes, then alphabetical order) to determine a single winner, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified party or coalition wins the greatest number of seats in the Knesset in the 2026 Israeli legislative election; otherwise it resolves No. Ties for the most seats are broken first by the total valid votes received by the candidate list, and then by alphabetical order. If election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to "Other". Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Israel's Central Election Committee in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election date:
- Definitive result deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yashar | 68% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Likud | 33% | ▲ 1 | Low | High | |
| Together | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Shas | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| The Democrats | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Otzma Yehudit | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low |