Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Current price
33.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 33.5%
$552.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the outcome based on the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, specifically requiring the winning candidate to be the official nominee of the party. Independent runs are explicitly excluded from party outcomes even if an affiliated figure runs independently. Resolution relies on three specific major media outlets calling the race unanimously, with an explicit fallback to official state certification if a consensus call is not reached. Replacement of nominees before election day is also directly addressed, leaving little room for misinterpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, including any run-offs.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not considered Republicans or Democrats regardless of party affiliation. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution is determined by the official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The election is currently scheduled for this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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