Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?
Current price
42.5¢
−15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 42.5%
$7.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party outcome of the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election, explicitly handling potential nominee replacements. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to the official certified results from the relevant election authority if ambiguity arises. A distant long-stop date of July 31, 2027 provides ample time for routine certification, resolving to Other only if the outcome remains unknown by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election. It accounts for potential nominee replacements prior to election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027. If any named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the official results reported by the certifying electoral authority in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the certifying electoral authority in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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