US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
Current price
92.5¢
+3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.5%
$93.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title refers casually to a ceasefire continuing, but the actual mechanics specifically track whether the United States conducts an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting terrestrial Iran. There are extensive carve-outs, including intercepted munitions, debris, artillery, MLRS, ground incursions, cyber warfare, naval gunfire, and short-range loitering munitions. Adjudication relies on official statements and a consensus of credible reporting, granting broad discretion to evaluate disputed strikes. If conflicting reports emerge, the market can extend resolution by up to three full calendar days past the initial reported evidence to weigh the totality of available information.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether the United States avoids conducting a qualifying military action against Iran's terrestrial territory through October 24 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not take a qualifying military action directly impacting Iran by October 24 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters by that time. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval or artillery fire, and minor surface-to-surface strikes do not count. Resolution is determined by official information from the US and Iranian governments/militaries and a consensus of credible reporting, with up to a 3-day review period if reports conflict.
Key dates
- Ceasefire evaluation deadline: — Market resolves based on actions taking place by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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