Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$8.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the metric as the upper bound of the Federal Reserve target range and establish the baseline as the rate prior to the October 2026 meeting. Resolution relies strictly on the official Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement and published Federal Reserve data, providing direct links. The rules also include a clear rounding mechanism for non-standard rate adjustments and a definitive fallback rule if no statement is released.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee will cut the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following its October 2026 meeting. An unusual feature is a rounding rule where rate changes not listed in the standard options round up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target federal funds range by 50 or more basis points relative to its pre-meeting level following the October 2026 meeting. Rate changes not explicitly matching standard brackets round up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the rate is decreased by less than 50 basis points, remains unchanged, or is increased. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. The outcome is decided using the FOMC post-meeting statement and the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting dates: The FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026.
Resolution source
FOMC Statement / Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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