Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 21?
Current price
99.45¢
Implied probability 99.45%
$22K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify the exact metric, trading pair, exchange, time interval, and timestamp needed to determine the outcome. Resolution relies entirely on the final close price of the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 PM ET on Binance on October 21. Because a single designated primary source URL and exact candle parameters are provided without room for decider interpretation or complex fallback clauses, the risk of an unexpected resolution is minimal.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $74,000 on October 21 at 12:00 PM ET. It strictly relies on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price rather than other trading pairs or exchanges.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on October 21 has a final Close price strictly greater than $74,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $74,000. Price precision follows the decimal places available in the source data. Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data decides the outcome, ignoring prices from other exchanges or pairs.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — The Close price of the 1-minute candle at 12:00 PM ET determines the resolution.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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