Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Senate election. Markets measure which party's candidate wins and the percentage-point difference between the first-place and second-place candidates across defined margin brackets.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as mutually exclusive percentage margin brackets representing winning candidates or parties. At most one market can resolve Yes, as the election yields a single winning candidate and a single margin of victory calculated from the top two vote recipients.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if the specified party's candidate wins the election within the stated percentage margin bracket, calculated as the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the top two finishers relative to all valid votes cast. Named candidates represent their political parties; if a candidate is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. If the calculated margin falls exactly between two brackets, the higher bracket resolves to Yes. The market will resolve to 'Other' if definitive results are not known by June 30, 2027.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — The date the 2026 Texas Senate election is expected to take place.
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to 'Other' if results are not known definitively.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Texas Senate election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC