Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$7.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the interest rate evaluated is the upper bound of the target federal funds range, decided at the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, 2026. Official Federal Reserve statements and published target ranges serve as the direct resolution source. Explicit rounding mechanics are provided if an unconventional rate adjustment occurs, and there is a clear fallback rule resolving to no change if no statement is released before the next scheduled meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve reduces the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points following the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate changes that do not match standard options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range decreases by 25 basis points compared to the level prior to the October 2026 meeting. If the rate change is not an exact option, it rounds up to the nearest 25 basis points, so a 12.5 basis point cut counts as a 25 basis point decrease. The market resolves to No if the rate is changed by any other amount or is not reduced. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after the meeting or data on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting scheduled dates: — The FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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