Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?

Current price

18.5¢

−9¢ · 24h

Implied probability 18.5%
$363.8K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 15.5–39.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The resolution rules provide precise criteria and leave minimal room for subjective interpretation. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair shows a Low price at or below $75,000 during October, defined explicitly from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last day. The rules specifically identify Binance's BTC/USDT pair via a direct URL as the sole data source, explicitly excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

High tradability

Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $78.8K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 2 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Down 10 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The odds of Bitcoin dipping to $75,000 fell from 28% to 18% as Bitcoin gained 0.67% on Binance in the move hour and 1.39% over the window, making a drop to the $75,000 threshold less likely.

Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 50% of the net 24-hour change.
BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +1.4% over 24 hours.
Closes 13 days after the move hour.
7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 80,000 (down), ↑ 85,000 (up), ↓ 77,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 15:50 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 1, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price drops to $75,000 or lower at any point during the month of October.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final Low price equal to or lower than $75,000 between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this price during the specified period. Resolution is determined strictly by Binance 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.

Key dates

Observation window start: Oct 1, 2026 — 00:00 AM ET
Observation window end: Oct 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 11:31 UTC

Community forecast

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