18¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18%
$30.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
This market resolves on standard congressional election outcomes for North Carolina's 11th district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission figures serving as the definitive fallback if reporting is ambiguous. Clear rules dictate how candidate party affiliation is assigned, including explicit provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on caucusing intent at the time all House races are called.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The probability of a Republican win fell from 25% to 13% as related candidate Jamie Ager (D) moved up, reflecting a repricing across competing outcomes for the seat.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win North Carolina's 11th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NC-11 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated with either major party, has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Republican Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.