Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Current price
33.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 33.5%
$40.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the candidate who wins the most valid votes cast abroad in the second round of the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The resolving data is tied to official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the Exterior category. There is an explicit fallback tie-breaker based on alphabetical order of listed full names and a definitive cutoff date of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if official results remain undetermined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flavio Bolsonaro will receive the most valid votes cast from abroad in the second round of Brazil's presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Flavio Bolsonaro wins the most valid votes cast outside Brazil (reported under "Exterior" by the TSE) in the second round of the presidential election, after breaking any ties by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the highest ranking under these criteria. The market resolves to Other if the definitive result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Brazilian government specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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