Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Current price
69.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69.5%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish the criteria for determining the winning party in the 2026 Michigan Senate election. Party representation is strictly tied to official ballot nomination, explicitly excluding independent candidates regardless of informal party ties or caucusing agreements. Resolution triggers are clearly designated: a consensus call across three specified media organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definite fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree. Any candidate replacements prior to election day and potential runoffs are fully covered, minimizing surprises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Michigan. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if affiliated with a party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if the Democratic nominee does not win. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The market covers the 2026 midterm election. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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