PolymarketCloses · in 12 daysPart of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?

Current price

55.5¢

+9¢ · 24h

Implied probability 55.5%
$181.5K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 39–85.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market features clear and deterministic rules. Resolution relies entirely on a single, explicitly defined metric: the high price of any one-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance during the specified timeframe. A precise link, timeframe (11:59 PM ET on the last day of October), and candle timeframe are provided, and alternative exchanges or trading pairs are explicitly excluded. There is virtually no room for discretion or interpretive ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $41.4K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢16:5600:5508:5316:51
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19
40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 10Oct 13Oct 16Oct 19

Why it moved

Up 11 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 52% to 62% as Bitcoin gained 0.67% on Binance in the hour of the move, bringing the price within 2.91% of $85,000 and making reaching that level more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 79% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +1.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 13 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 80,000 (down), ↓ 77,500 (down), ↑ 87,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 13:50 UTC

Up 12 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 rose from 55% to 67%. Bitcoin gained 0.67% on Binance during the move hour, bringing it within 2.99% of the target threshold and making a reach more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 63% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 13 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 80,000 (down), ↓ 77,500 (down), ↑ 87,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

Down 11 points · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability fell from 63% to 53% as Bitcoin dropped 0.76% on Binance during the move hour, making reaching $85,000 in October less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 86% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.8% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 15 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 77,500 (up), ↑ 87,500 (down), ↑ 92,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 14:46 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a high price of at least $85,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during October. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices from Binance, disregarding other exchanges or pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final High price equal to or greater than $85,000 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. Price action occurring before the creation of the market is excluded. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds that price threshold within the specified period. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data; all other exchanges, spot markets, and trading pairs are disregarded.

Key dates

  • End of tracking window: — Tracking ends at 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Community forecast

Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.