US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

This event tracks whether a ceasefire between the United States and Iran persists, measured by whether the United States conducts qualifying military strikes against the terrestrial territory of Iran by specific dates.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline ladder of specific target dates. Multiple markets can resolve Yes; for instance, if the ceasefire holds past a later date, all earlier markets also resolve Yes. Conversely, if a qualifying strike occurs before an earlier date, that market and all subsequent date markets resolve No.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to No if the United States executes a qualifying military action against Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the specified date; otherwise, it resolves to Yes. Qualifying actions include US-initiated air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly impacting terrestrial Iran. Non-qualifying actions include intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, small-arms fire, or unexecuted threats. If reports conflict, resolution may pause for up to 3 calendar days.

Key dates

• October 31 deadline: 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on October 31 (year not stated in rules)
• November 30 deadline: 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on November 30 (year not stated in rules)

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC