Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Current price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$249.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. Party affiliation is explicitly tied to official nomination, clarifying that independent runs do not count toward party options. Resolution relies on a strict consensus across three named major outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with an unambiguous fallback to official state certification if the networks disagree or do not all make a call.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if they have an affiliation with that party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democratic or Republican options regardless of their affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC decide the outcome once all three call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election year specified in the market
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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