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Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Current price

30.5¢

+6¢ · 24h

Implied probability 30.5%
$678.8K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 23.5–57.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The rules are unambiguous and establish a clear, objective standard for resolution. The target is defined by the high price of any one-minute candle on the Binance BTC/USDT pair between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The source is a single, explicitly named trading pair URL with exact chart settings specified, leaving no room for discretion or alternative interpretation. Early resolution occurs immediately if the threshold is met, and pricing from any other exchange or market is explicitly excluded.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

High tradability

Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $89.2K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
20¢30¢40¢50¢16:5600:5508:5316:51
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 3Oct 9Oct 14Oct 19

Why it moved

Up 10 points · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market rose from 30% to 40% alongside 5 related Bitcoin price targets moving in tandem, pointing to broader repricing across related contracts as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 45% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.5% in the move hour, +1.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 13 days after the move hour.
  • 5 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 77,500 (up), ↓ 75,000 (up), ↑ 90,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

Down 12 points · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The contract fell from 41% to 30% as Bitcoin dropped 0.76% on Binance during the move hour, making reaching $87,500 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 55% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.8% in the move hour, −1.2% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 15 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↓ 77,500 (up), ↑ 92,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 11:39 UTC

Down 14 points · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 40% to 30% as Bitcoin dropped 0.76% on Binance during the hour, making reaching the $87,500 level in October less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 60% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.8% in the move hour, −0.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 15 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↓ 77,500 (up), ↑ 92,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 04:52 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $87,500 or higher during the month of October. It relies strictly on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High price equal to or greater than $87,500 between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold during the specified period. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets do not count. Resolution is determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data.

Key dates

  • Start of measurement period: — 00:00 AM ET
  • End of measurement period: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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