Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Current price
27.5¢
−4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$398.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines the victory margin mathematically using official valid vote counts and specifies the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court as the ultimate source of truth. However, there are significant edge-case rules that could surprise participants. If any candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round, or if the top two candidates tie, the market resolves to 'Other' rather than a standard margin bracket. Additionally, if the winning margin lands exactly on a boundary between ranges, it defaults to the higher bracket. A secondary clause also mentions using a consensus of credible reporting before falling back on official results if ambiguity arises, though the formal electoral authority is explicitly cited.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 4% to 8% of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election with a margin of victory between 4% and 8% of total valid votes over the second-place candidate. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher bracket. The market resolves No if Flávio Bolsonaro wins with a different margin of victory, or if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates tie in valid votes, or if the election result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If a recount occurs before certification, resolution waits until the recount finishes. Resolution is determined by credible reporting consensus, or by official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) as the definitive official source in case of ambiguity.
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