Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 3%-6%?
Current price
30¢
−4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 30%
$4.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on the official certified vote tally from the state electoral authority, but also permits resolution via an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The rules explicitly specify mathematical calculations for the margin of victory, but boundary precision (such as whether '3%-6%' is inclusive of 3.00% and 6.00% prior to rounding) and edge-case handling introduce complexity. An explicit tie-break hierarchy assigns victories alphabetically by last name to the lowest bracket rather than splitting or voiding. Additionally, if results are delayed beyond June 30, 2027, the market defaults to 'Other'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mary Peltola will win the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election by a margin of victory between 3% and 6% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola receives the most valid votes in the first round and her margin of victory over the second-place finisher is between 3% and 6%. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins, or if Peltola wins by a margin outside the 3%-6% range. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or in the case of a first-place tie between two or more unlisted candidates. The state electoral authority responsible for certifying results is the primary source, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is expected to be held.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Alaska senate election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
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