Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Current price
2.7¢
−0.6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.7%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market translates the colloquial phrase from the title into a precise, quantitative standard: a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or below 10. Outcome determination relies entirely on an explicit, named dashboard from IMF PortWatch with a direct URL. Clear rules govern early resolution upon hitting the threshold, establish a 14-day window for delayed data reporting after the cutoff date, and outline unambiguous instructions regarding how retrospective data revisions are treated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether ship traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer 7-day moving average transit calls by October 31. Unusually, once a published data point meets the threshold, subsequent data revisions cannot disqualify it.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ('Arrivals of Ships') for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait of 10 or fewer for any date between market creation and October 31. Revisions made before data is published for October 31 are considered, but they cannot disqualify an earlier data point that already qualified. The market resolves to No if data for October 31 is published without any 7-day moving average falling to 10 or fewer. If no data is published for October 31 within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, the market resolves based on data published up to that point. Revisions made after data for October 31 is published are disregarded. Resolution is determined by IMF PortWatch.
Key dates
- Target date: Final date for tracking 7-day moving average transit calls (October 31).
- Data cutoff: Market resolves on data published up to this point if October 31 data is not published within 14 calendar days (ET).
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.