Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?
Current price
71.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 71.5%
$30.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the target seat, election date, and conditions for attributing a candidate's party, including explicit handling for independent candidates based on caucus intent. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude for judgement, but there is a clear official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Resolution timing is tied directly to when election results are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Colorado's 4th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CO-04 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm election date: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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