Fed Decision in October?
5 live outcomes · highest priced: No change at 88% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 29, 2026 · $46.9M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision following its October 2026 meeting, measuring the basis-point change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive brackets representing different potential changes in interest rates (increases, decreases, or no change). At most one outcome can resolve Yes, corresponding to the specific basis-point change decided by the FOMC.
How it resolves
Each market resolves based on the change in basis points of the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level prior to the October 2026 meeting. If the rate change is not explicitly listed, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points to match a bracket. If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the event resolves to the 'No change' outcome. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after the meeting.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start:
- FOMC meeting end:
Resolution source
FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 88% | ▲ 1 | Low | High | |
| 25 bps increase | 13% | ▼ 1 | Low | High | |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low |