Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Current price
3.05¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$374.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules contain several specific mechanics that deviate from a straightforward binary outcome. Notably, the market specifies resolution to 'Other' if any candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, or if there is an exact tie, even though the primary question asks solely about Bolsonaro winning by at least 12%. The text also references bracket-rounding mechanics ('higher range bracket') despite the question being phrased as a single threshold question. The resolution source first cites a consensus of credible reporting before falling back to official Tribunal Superior Eleitoral data in case of ambiguity. There is an explicit longstop deadline of June 30, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if definitive official results or recount totals are not certified by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of victory of at least 12% of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most valid votes in the second round and his margin of victory over the second-place candidate is at least 12.0% of all valid votes cast. The market resolves to No if Flávio Bolsonaro does not win by at least 12.0%. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates tie, or if the definitive result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two candidates. If a recount occurs before officialization, the market remains open until it completes. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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