Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?

Current price

82.5¢

+3.5¢ · 24h

Implied probability 82.5%
$27K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 75–87¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market resolves based on the winning candidate's party affiliation for North Carolina's 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit fallback provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on stated caucusing intentions. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an unambiguous fallback to official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is disputed. There are standard election timing considerations while votes are tabulated and races are called, but the criteria and fallback mechanisms leave little room for unexpected outcomes.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Med
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $18.5K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 2 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Up 12 points · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market rose from 76% to 86% as related candidate Jennifer Balkcom (R) moved downward, reflecting outcomes repricing together across the event as the likely driver.

Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 39% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 17 days after the move hour.
1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Jennifer Balkcom (R) (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Jul 22, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the North Carolina's 11th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election. Candidates without a major-party ballot line are classified by their declared caucus intent.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NC-11 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, or is an unaffiliated/third-party candidate who most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are called. It resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Republican Party, or otherwise does not meet the Democratic criteria. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.

Key dates

2026 midterm election date: Nov 3, 2026 — The date the midterm elections take place.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in cases of ambiguity

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 05:37 UTC

Community forecast

Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.