Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Current price
65.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 65.5%
$766.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules clearly establish how party affiliation is defined and specify that an independent candidate does not count toward the Democratic party outcome regardless of outside endorsements or informal affiliations. Resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with a definite fallback to official state certification if the networks do not reach consensus. Provisions for potential run-offs and nominee substitutions prior to election day are explicitly addressed, leaving little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election. Independent candidates do not count toward the Democratic outcome regardless of any party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of their party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — Currently scheduled date for the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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