Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Current price
30.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 30.5%
$813.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market has well-defined resolution criteria based on the official outcome of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election. Resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with a clear fallback to official state election certification if the three outlets do not agree. Party affiliation rules explicitly state that candidates must be the official nominee of the party, and independent candidates are not treated as major party nominees regardless of informal affiliations or caucusing intentions. Candidate replacement prior to election day is also cleanly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan, including any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options regardless of their affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place during the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if the three sources do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.