US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Current price
78.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 78.5%
$623.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title refers casually to a ceasefire, but the operational rules define a specific and narrow set of military actions that trigger a No resolution. Only direct US airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile impacts on Iran's terrestrial territory count, explicitly excluding ground incursions, cyberattacks, naval/artillery fire, short-range loitering munitions, and intercepted strikes or debris. Determining whether an impact occurred versus an interception, or identifying the exact weapon type, relies on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting, with a mandatory three-day waiting period if reports conflict. Adjudication ultimately depends on assessing the totality of evidence rather than a single definitive source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States refrains from launching specific qualifying military strikes directly impacting Iranian terrestrial territory through November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the terrestrial territory or internal waters of Iran by the deadline. Munitions intercepted before impact, debris, surface-to-air strikes, artillery, cyber operations, ground incursions, small arms, and minor short-range drone or ATGM strikes do not qualify. Determination is based on official US and Iranian government or military statements and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which a qualifying US military action against Iran must occur.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
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