Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the electoral list winning the most seats in the National Assembly of Serbia. Detailed tie-breaking rules are provided, using total valid votes followed by alphabetical order. The resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to the official Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia website if any ambiguity arises. A potential surprise is the tie-break mechanism ending in alphabetical order or the hard timeout on March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if official results are delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor electoral list will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. Resolution relies strictly on ballot list names and includes explicit tiebreaker rules down to alphabetical ordering.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia in the 2026 parliamentary election. If lists tie on seats, the list with more valid votes ranks higher. If still tied, the tie is broken by the alphabetical order of the listed names. Resolution is based solely on the electoral list as named on ballots and official proclamations, regardless of party composition or later assembly organization. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary election.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia
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