26.5¢
−6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 26.5%
$62.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
This market establishes clear criteria based on the candidate receiving the most valid votes in the state of Amapá during the second round of Brazil's presidential election. While it initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly designates the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) as the definitive official authority in case of any ambiguity. It includes a specific tie-breaking rule based on the alphabetical order of listed names and a long backstop deadline extending well beyond the scheduled election date, ensuring minimal risk of surprising outcomes.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price fell from 36% to 20%, but available news reports covering general rallies and debate preparations showed no specific developments regarding Amapá to explain the move.
AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the most valid votes in Amapá during the second round of Brazil's presidential election, with an alphabetical tiebreaker rule in place.
The market resolves to Yes if Lula wins the most valid votes in Amapá in the second round of the presidential election, or wins an alphabetical tiebreaker if tied for first place. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate finishes highest after applying vote totals and any alphabetical tiebreakers. The market resolves to Other if the definitive result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) serving as the deciding source if ambiguity arises.
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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