Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 22?
Current price
95.6¢
+6.6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.6%
$3.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has very specific and objective resolution criteria. It identifies an exact timestamp (the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 22), an exact trading pair (BTC/USDT), an exact metric (the candle's final Close price), and a single named source (Binance). There is no discretion left to the resolver, and no unusual edge clauses or ambiguous thresholds are present.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price is above $78,000 at a specific minute on October 22, 2026. Resolution is tied strictly to a single 1-minute candle on Binance rather than an aggregate or full-day price.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on October 22, 2026, has a final Close price strictly higher than $78,000. It resolves to No if the final Close price is equal to or less than $78,000. Resolution relies solely on the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data on Binance, disregarding other trading pairs or exchanges. Price precision matches the decimal places provided by Binance.
Key dates
- Target candle close: — 12:00 PM ET candle close
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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