Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Current price
71.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 71.5%
$56.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Texas's 23rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution rules clearly define how candidate party affiliations are handled, including a specific provision assigning non-major party winners to the party they intend to caucus with. Initial resolution relies on a broad consensus of credible news reporting, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as a binding fallback in the event of ambiguity or dispute. A participant should note that resolution depends on the timing of when all 2026 House races are called rather than an immediate result on election night.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 23rd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-23 seat in the 2026 midterm election is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another non-Republican affiliation under the same standard. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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