US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Current price

63.5¢

−19¢ · 24h

Implied probability 63.5%
$4M total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 40.5–85.5¢

Medium gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The market title suggests a bilateral ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but the resolution rules focus entirely on one-sided action: only a qualifying strike initiated by the United States directly impacting Iranian land or internal waters will trigger a No outcome. Strikes by Iran against US forces, US cyberattacks, naval gunfire, artillery or rocket systems, and intercepted munitions with falling debris do not count toward a No resolution. Attribution and incident confirmation rely on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting alongside official government statements, with an automatic three-day delay mechanism to adjudicate conflicting reports. Anyone evaluating this market should note that significant military exchanges could occur without breaking the strictly defined criteria for the ceasefire to continue.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Med
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: High

Liquidity

High tradability

Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $6.4K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 2 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Down 41 points · 19 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market fell from 82% to 41% as part of a broader repricing across 6 related ceasefire outcome markets, which served as the likely driver.

Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 69% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 11 days after the move hour.
6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: October 28 (up), November 8 (down), November 15 (down).

News check after 20:00 UTC.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 16:20 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Sep 17, 2026

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through October 31, defined by the absence of specific direct US strikes on Iranian territory.

How it resolves

The market resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by October 31 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters. Actions such as intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval or artillery fire, and minor strikes do not count. The market resolves to Yes otherwise. Resolution is decided based on official US and Iranian government or military information and a consensus of credible reporting, with up to a 3-day review period for conflicting reports.

Key dates

End date: October 31 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (year not specified in rules)

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 20 Sept 2026, 02:38 UTC

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