Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Current price

42.5¢

±0¢ · 24h

Implied probability 42.5%
$488.6K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 26.5–62.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The rules are clearly defined with an objective threshold and a single named source. Resolution depends entirely on the low price recorded in Binance 1-minute candles for the BTC/USDT pair during October, defined explicitly from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last day. The market resolves immediately to Yes if any 1-minute candle touches or falls below $77,500, or to No at the end of the month otherwise. Other trading pairs or exchanges are explicitly excluded, leaving no room for decider discretion.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $49.9K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated less than a min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Up 11 points · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price rose from 32% to 42% as Bitcoin fell 0.76% on Binance during the move hour and 1.21% over 24 hours, making a dip to $77,500 more likely.

Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 67% of the net 24-hour change.
BTC (Binance): −0.8% in the move hour, −1.2% over 24 hours.
Closes 15 days after the move hour.
7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↑ 87,500 (down), ↑ 92,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 11:50 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 1, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin's price dips to $77,500 or lower during October. It relies strictly on the BTC/USDT pair on Binance using 1-minute candle data, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair during October shows a final Low price equal to or lower than $77,500. The tracking period runs from 00:00 AM ET on October 1 to 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this threshold during that period. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle price data is the sole deciding source. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded.

Key dates

Tracking period start: Oct 1, 2026 — 00:00 AM ET
Tracking period end: Oct 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 11:31 UTC

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