Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$163K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official seat count from the election, relying on credible reporting with an explicit backstop to Israel's Central Election Committee. Detailed tie-breaking procedures rely on total valid votes followed by alphabetical order, and an extensive framework defines how party mergers, joint candidate lists, and splits are attributed. A definitive long-stop timeout date of June 30, 2027 resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the "Together" political party or its successor wins the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The market includes specific rules for handling party mergers, joint candidate lists, and party splits, and it uses a tie-breaking procedure based on valid votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the "Together" party or its successor wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election. If "Together" merges with or contests the election jointly with another party, the "Together" option represents the resulting candidate list or merged party. If "Together" splits, the option represents the resulting party holding the most seats. This market resolves to No if any other political party or coalition wins the greatest number of seats. In the event of a tie for the most seats, the party or coalition with more valid votes wins. If votes are also tied, the party whose name appears first alphabetically wins. This market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or the official results from Israel’s Central Election Committee if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
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