Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Current price
9.65¢
+0.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.65%
$741.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market includes several specific mechanics that could catch a participant off guard. First, it mentions an outcome of 'Other' if someone besides Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula da Silva wins, which implies this is part of a multi-choice market even though the title asks a binary question about an 8–12% margin. Second, the bracket boundary rule explicitly shifts exact edge cases to the higher range bracket. Third, resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Tribunal Superior Eleitoral data acting only as a fallback if ambiguity arises. Finally, there is a hard timeout of June 30, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if certification or recounts stall past that point.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 8% to 12% of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round, calculated as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates tie, or if the result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If a recount occurs before results are official, the market stays open until the recount finishes. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — The scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Brazilian government specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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