Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?
Current price
50.5¢
+7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 50.5%
$10.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on which political party's candidate wins the specified election. The rules account for nominee replacements by binding resolution to the party rather than an individual. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to the official certifying authority in the event of ambiguity. A long backstop date of July 31, 2027, prevents early expiration issues while resolving to Other if the race remains unresolved.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the winning candidate cannot be definitively determined by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other".
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate (or their replacement nominee) wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election. The market resolves to No if the nominee of another party wins. The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the official results reported by the certifying electoral authority in case of ambiguity. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the resolution tracks the replacement nominee.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date of the election
- Definitive outcome deadline: — Market resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by this date
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the electoral authority responsible for certifying election results in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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