Which Senate races will be within 5%?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: Texas at 71% (−5 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $114.2K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the competitiveness of individual 2026 U.S. Senate races, measuring whether the margin of victory between the top two candidates in a given state's election will be 5% or less.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a specific state's 2026 Senate race. Because each state race is evaluated independently, multiple markets can resolve Yes, or all can resolve No, depending on the final election results in each state.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates, calculated by dividing each top candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast. For multi-round, runoff, or ranked-choice elections, the margin is taken from the round in which the winner is determined. Resolution is based on the specified state's election authority, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Scheduled date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
The state election authority of the specified state, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 71% | ▼ 5 | Low | Low | |
| Maine | 69% | ▲ 2 | Low | Low | |
| Alaska | 65% | ▲ 3 | Low | Low | |
| New Hampshire | 34% | ▲ 1 | Low | Low | |
| Iowa | 72% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Nebraska | 61% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Michigan | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Ohio (Special) | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Virginia | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| New Mexico | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Colorado | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Florida (Special) | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| North Carolina | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Georgia | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Minnesota | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Montana | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| South Carolina | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Kansas | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Mississippi | — | — | Not rated | — |