PolymarketCloses · in 1 dayPart of Bitcoin above ___ on October 21? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21?

Current price

87.5¢

+4¢ · 24h

Implied probability 87.5%
$17.1K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 63.5–93.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market has very specific and objective resolution criteria. It identifies an exact timestamp (12:00 PM ET on October 21), a precise metric (the final Close price of the 1-minute candle), and a single definitive source (the Binance BTC/USDT pair via the provided URL). There is minimal room for interpretation or decider discretion.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $24.1K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢10:4118:4002:3810:36
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢Oct 18Oct 18Oct 18Oct 19
82¢84¢86¢88¢Oct 18Oct 19Oct 19Oct 19

Why it moved

Up 11 points · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market rose from 73% to 84% with 59 hours remaining until the October 21 deadline, consistent with time decay as the contract nears settlement.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 71% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.5% in the move hour, +0.7% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 00:42 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $80,000 on October 21. It relies strictly on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at a specific timestamp rather than aggregate market indexes or other trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on October 21 has a final Close price strictly higher than $80,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $80,000. Price precision is determined by the decimal places in the source. Binance BTC/USDT data decides the outcome.

Key dates

  • Measurement time: — Price measured at the 12:00 PM ET candle close

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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