Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?
Current price
3.95¢
−6.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.95%
$8.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the candidate winning the most valid votes in Minas Gerais during the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Official data from the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) serves as the definitive fallback source if reporting is ambiguous. Participants should note the tie-breaking rule, which defaults to alphabetical order of full names rather than an official recount or shared outcome, as well as a timeout clause resolving to 'Other' if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will receive the most valid votes in the state of Minas Gerais during the second round of Brazil's presidential election, with a tie-breaker based on alphabetical order of listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lula wins the highest number of valid votes in Minas Gerais in the second round of the presidential election, or wins a tie broken by the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the highest ranking under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) in the event of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — The scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Deadline for definitive results before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Elelectoral, TSE) official results as the ultimate authority in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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