Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?
Current price
19¢
Implied probability 19%
$5.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the margin of victory is calculated using valid vote totals and define boundary edge cases, ties, and recount handling. Official certification from the Alaska state electoral authority serves as the primary source, with an explicit backstop date and straightforward tie-breaking criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dan S. Sullivan wins the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election by a margin of victory between 0% and 3% against the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dan S. Sullivan finishes first in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election and his margin of victory over the second-place candidate is between 0% and 3% of all valid votes cast. Margin of victory is the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two candidates. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher margin bracket. The market resolves to No if Dan S. Sullivan does not win the first round, or if he wins by a margin outside the 0%-3% bracket. If candidates tie for first place, specific alphabetical tie-breaking rules determine whether Sullivan gets the lowest margin bracket. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if two or more unlisted candidates tie for first place. Resolution is decided by official results published by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is expected to take place.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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