Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?
Current price
34.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.5%
$4.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official certified vote totals from the Alaska state electoral authority to calculate the margin between the first- and second-place candidates. Resolution timing accounts for potential recounts and official certification delays, extending until June 30, 2027, before defaulting to an alternate outcome. Specific tie-breaking mechanics apply based on alphabetical order of candidate surnames if a first-place tie occurs, and values falling exactly on boundary thresholds resolve to the higher margin bracket. While credible reporting is mentioned as a fallback, official election results serve as the primary standard.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mary Peltola will finish first in the 2026 Alaska Senate first-round election with a margin of victory between 0% and 3% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola wins the first round by a margin of 0% to 3% over the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference between their valid vote percentages. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket. In the event of a tie for first place between listed candidates, the lowest margin bracket resolves for the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins or if Peltola wins by a margin outside this bracket. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if an unlisted tie occurs. Resolution is determined by official results from the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Election date: — Expected date of the 2026 Alaska Senate first-round election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
The official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election published by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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