Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$3.8M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules tie resolution specifically to the Prime Minister sworn in after a parliamentary election (whether the scheduled October 2026 vote or an earlier snap election). A mid-term change of Prime Minister within the current Knesset without a general election, such as via a coalition reshuffle, would not meet these criteria. Furthermore, interim or caretaker appointments are explicitly disqualified. The market also includes a long-stop date of December 31, 2027, resolving to "Other" if no post-election government is sworn in by that time. Official Israeli government announcements serve as the primary source, with consensus media reporting available as a secondary reference.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Naftali Bennett will become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Naftali Bennett is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves No if another individual is officially appointed and formally sworn in following that election. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Scheduled Israeli legislative elections: — Date elections are scheduled to be held
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by this deadline
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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