Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?

Current price

58.5¢

−15¢ · 24h

Implied probability 58.5%
$87.6K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 58.5–85.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market features clear, objective criteria tied directly to a single, explicit data source. Resolution depends entirely on whether any final one-minute candle low on Binance's BTC/USDT pair reaches or drops below $80,000 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October. It explicitly excludes prior price action, other exchanges, and alternative trading pairs, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $46.2K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 4 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Down 11 points · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC

Coin price

The price fell from 77% to 67%. Bitcoin rose 0.51% on Binance during the move hour, making a dip to $80,000 less likely and serving as the likely driver.

Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 67% of the net 24-hour change.
BTC (Binance): +0.5% in the move hour, +0.7% over 24 hours.
Closes 13 days after the move hour.
4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↑ 87,500 (up), ↓ 77,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 15, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a low of $80,000 or lower on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during October. Resolution relies strictly on Binance 1-minute candle data rather than index or cross-exchange prices.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31 has a final Low price equal to or lower than $80,000. Price action prior to market creation is excluded. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined solely using the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices from Binance. Price data from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are disregarded.

Key dates

End of tracking period: Oct 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 02:36 UTC

Community forecast

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