Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Current price
70.5¢
−4.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 70.5%
$18.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly defines the margin of victory as the absolute difference between the vote totals of the top two finishers divided by the sum of all valid votes cast, resolving to Yes if that margin is 5.0% or less. Official state election authorities serve as the primary source, though the rules also permit resolution via a consensus of credible media reporting, which could lead to resolution before official canvassing and certification are complete. Aside from potential delays during standard vote counting and certification, the resolution terms and calculation methodology are straightforward and leave little room for ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race is 5% or less.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Senate race is 5% or less. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages received by the first- and second-place candidates, dividing each candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast. For runoffs, ranked-choice, or multi-round formats, the margin of the round determining the winner is used. The market resolves to No if the margin of victory is greater than 5%. Resolution is decided by the state election authority of Texas, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election is scheduled to be held on this date.
Resolution source
Texas state election authority or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.