Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Current price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$3.9M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market relies on official California state election results or a consensus of credible reporting to determine if a qualifying billionaire wealth tax passes in November 2026. However, holders should note an early resolution condition: the market will resolve to No early if no qualifying initiative is certified for the statewide ballot by June 25, 2026. Additionally, if an initiative is amended prior to the election such that its main wealth threshold drops below $1 billion, the rules dictate a No resolution even if a broader wealth tax encompassing billionaires ultimately makes the ballot and passes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether California voters pass a ballot proposition in the November 3, 2026 general election enacting a one-time wealth tax on individuals, households, or family units with at least $1 billion in wealth, assets, or net worth.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the November 3, 2026 California general election. The market resolves to No if no such proposition passes. The market also resolves to No if no qualifying initiative is certified for the statewide ballot by June 25, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or if all qualifying propositions are removed from the ballot or amended beforehand so that the threshold falls below $1 billion. Official information from the Government of the State of California, or a consensus of credible reporting, decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Initiative certification cutoff: — Official cutoff date (11:59 PM ET) for new initiatives to be certified for the ballot.
- California general election: — Date of the California statewide general election.
Resolution source
Government of the State of California
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.