Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Current price
20.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20.5%
$50.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define party representation, specifying that candidates must be the official party nominee and that independent runs do not qualify as Republican or Democratic outcomes. Resolution relies on consensus calls from three designated major news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) and provides a clear fallback to official election certification if unanimous consensus is not reached, leaving minimal room for decider interpretation or unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options regardless of their personal party affiliation. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not reach an agreement on the winner, resolution will be determined by the official state certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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