Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
50.35¢
+4.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 50.35%
$3.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies that an individual must be officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister following the next parliamentary election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers. The resolution relies primarily on official Israeli government announcements, with credible reporting as a secondary source. The December 31, 2027 cutoff provides ample time for post-election coalition formation, and the conditions defining early elections and the exclusion of caretaker roles leave little room for ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gadi Eizenkot will be the next officially appointed and sworn-in Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gadi Eizenkot is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the scheduled 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves to No if a different individual is officially sworn in following that election. The market resolves to "Other" if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel decides the outcome, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.
Key dates
- Scheduled legislative election: — Scheduled date for parliamentary elections in Israel.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for a Prime Minister to be sworn in before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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